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Global trade has entered an era of structural uncertainty. Tariffs, sanctions, and export controls increasingly shape commercial outcomes. The US–China rivalry, the reemergence of industrial policy and fragmented regulatory approaches are now part of every strategic decision on sourcing and investment. Yet, amid these disruptions, new openings are emerging for European firms. The EU’s trade agenda is advancing on several fronts. Negotiations with Mexico, Mercosur and Indonesia have reached or are nearing technical conclusion. Although these agreements are not yet fully ratified, and implementation timelines may vary, their direction is clear: they will progressively lower tariff barriers, modernise digital and services rules, and offer a more predictable trade environment.
For European firms, this moment offers a chance to prepare and not wait. Even if the final texts still evolve, the signals are strong enough to start positioning for export growth, import cost optimisation, and supplychain diversification.
This article was written by Jaouad Bantal ([email protected]) and Marius Ungureanu ([email protected]). Jaouad and Marius are consultants with RSM Netherlands Business Consulting with a focus on Supply Chain Management.
Once in force, the EU’s new trade agreements will create a more favourable environment for European exporters. They will open large consumer markets and support stronger protection for services, data and investments. Even before full ratification, they signal political momentum toward greater openness.
For exporters, this means new incentives to explore or reengage with markets that are often underdeveloped from a European perspective. Mexico’s consumer base of over 130 million people, Indonesia’s 280 million and Mercosur’s combined market of more than 700 million create enormous potential demand for European goods and services. Companies that anticipate the regulatory and tariff changes can establish a presence early by building brand awareness, securing distribution partners, and adapting products to local standards. Exporters that align their documentation, sustainability credentials and rulesoforigin compliance will be ready to move quickly once tariff preferences apply.
Even if political debates delay formal entry into force, early commercial exploration can reveal where demand clusters exist, which sectors are most responsive, and how to tailor marketentry strategies. These preparatory steps can later translate into firstmover advantage.
Opportunity to reshape supply chains by sourcing from other jurisdictions
The same trade frameworks that facilitate exports can also reduce costs on the import side. Many European companies already source components, raw materials and semifinished goods from these regions. When implemented, the agreements will simplify customs procedures and gradually lower or eliminate tariffs on a wide range of products. Even before this happens, firms can assess the scale of potential savings. Reviewing tariff classifications, landed costs and supplier locations allows decisionmakers to understand where future benefits may emerge. Identifying which inputs might qualify for preferential treatment helps build a roadmap for adapting sourcing contracts once the agreements enter into force.
These agreements also promise to streamline nontariff aspects of trade. Improved customs cooperation, clearer documentation and alignment of regulatory standards can reduce administrative costs and shorten supplychain lead times. The financial gains may vary by sector, but in aggregate they strengthen the business case for sustaining or expanding partnerships in these regions.
Beyond direct cost advantages, these agreements provide a framework for structural supplychain resilience. The past few years have demonstrated how overconcentration in a single geography, whether in Asia or within the EU, can expose firms to tariffs, bottlenecks and political shocks.
Mexico, Indonesia and Mercosur countries can each play complementary roles in a more diversified sourcing strategy. Mexico offers proximity to North America and a growing manufacturing base aligned with EU standards. Indonesia anchors critical mineral and cleantechnology supply chains. Mercosur, with Brazil and Argentina at its core, can become a key regional node for agricultural and industrial inputs.
As the details of the agreements become clearer, companies can model different production and sourcing scenarios. The goal is not radical relocation, but a more balanced and flexible footprint. This approach fits the OECD’s own advice to diversify rather than simply reshore. It also allows firms to use trade preferences strategically, locating parts of their value chain in jurisdictions where tariffs, logistics and compliance conditions align with longterm competitiveness.
A forwardlooking perspective
While the timing and precise implementation of these trade agreements remain subject to political processes, the direction of travel is unmistakable. The EU is broadening its network of preferential partners, and firms that align early with this trajectory will gain a structural edge.
The practical challenge is to bridge policy signals with commercial preparation. Exporters can map potential markets and compliance obligations. Importers can evaluate tariff exposure and customs readiness. Supplychain planners can test scenarios for regional diversification. These are not speculative exercises — they are pragmatic steps that create optionality once the agreements take effect.
The global environment will remain volatile. But volatility also creates opportunity. The EU’s evolving trade architecture offers a rare chance to build resilience, unlock new markets and capture longterm efficiencies. The key is not to wait for final ratification, but to prepare thoughtfully now.
RSM is a thought leader in the field of Supply Chain Management consulting including global trade matters. We provide frequent insights through training and the sharing of thought leadership, based on our detailed knowledge of industry developments and practical applications gained from working with our customers. To discuss a strategy for building structural resilience and navigating the new trade regulatory landscape, please contact one of our consultants.