COP30: Opportunities and challenges for the global middle market

The outcomes of COP30 in Belém, Brazil, have presented both significant opportunities and complex challenges for the global middle market. As businesses navigate a landscape shaped by new climate roadmaps and heightened expectations, the need for proactive and strategic adaptation has never been greater. We explore the key takeaways from the summit and offer insights from our global experts on how middle market leaders can build resilience, access new funding, and drive innovation in a rapidly changing world.

Responding to geopolitical uncertainty and climate priorities

The Belém Political Package introduced roadmaps on deforestation and fossil fuels, but with their legal standing still unclear, many businesses are questioning how to respond.

Kareem Abu Eid, ESG Services Leader at RSM in Kuwait, says that while the roadmaps "are not yet legally binding; they send a strong signal that capital and policy will increasingly favour low-carbon value chains. For middle market companies, the response is to treat these roadmaps as advance guidance, not distant politics". He advises a practical four-step approach:

1. Quantify Scope 1–3 emissions and any exposure to forest-risk commodities.
2. Run basic policy and carbon-price scenarios.
3. Adopt credible transition plans and near-term targets.
4. Tighten sourcing standards in anticipation of import rules and due-diligence laws.

This sentiment is echoed by Paola Piña, Partner ESG Advisory and Head of the Regional ESG Hub at RSM in Chile, who emphasises the need for strong internal structures. "In an uncertain geopolitical environment, the most effective response is to strengthen governance, integrate climate criteria into core business strategy, and build internal capabilities to manage reliable data,” she says. “Anticipation—rather than reaction—is becoming the region’s new competitive advantage".

For businesses looking to start, Deborah Fischer, Sustainability Partner for RSM in Belgium, suggests a focused analysis of the value chain. "Middle market businesses can perform a detailed analysis of their value chain and analyse any potential risks and impacts that they can address", she explains. This includes reviewing natural raw materials, evaluating dependencies, and calculating a thorough carbon footprint to build a transition plan aligned with global agreements.

However, Anthony DeCandido, Partner - Assurance Services at RSM in the US, cautions against overcommitment in a fluid regulatory environment. "Companies will continue to face uncertainty from soft law and shifting regulations", he notes. "Business leaders should monitor market trends, assess the impact on their operations, and respond thoughtfully, prioritising customers, employees, and communities. Given that many initiatives have been delayed or diminished, it's best to avoid overcommitting resources to new priorities that may not last".

Closing the gap between commitment and action

The updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) synthesis report highlighted a significant gap between climate commitments and tangible action. For middle market companies, closing this gap is a matter of compliance as well as being a strategic imperative.

Fischer points out that the intense focus on reporting may have diverted resources from implementation. "Decarbonisation starts with calculating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in order to have the baseline", she says. "From there, companies can look into what investments or changes in processes are needed to ensure that decarbonisation targets are defined". Good internal controls and progress tracking are key to an agile strategy.

Piña agrees, arguing that real change begins with internal transformation. "Bridging the gap between ambition and action requires transforming internal management. Decarbonisation becomes real when businesses invest in measurement capabilities and use that data to guide risks, metrics, and incentives. That is the point where commitments become results".

Building on this, Abu Eid suggests that tightening policies and rising customer expectations will drive change faster than many businesses assume. His recommendations include building a robust emissions baseline, adopting science-aligned targets, and using internal carbon pricing. "Integrating climate metrics into governance, remuneration, risk management and external reporting (ISSB/IFRS S2, CDP, GRI) strengthens credibility with banks, investors and regulators", he advises.

DeCandido underscores the importance of a clear and credible plan. "Businesses should define achievable targets that support their overall objectives. Creating a well-defined plan based on established frameworks such as the GHG Protocol or TCFD will lend authority to your initiatives. Improving data management also helps build trust in the metrics that users of your reports depend on".

Accessing climate finance and driving solutions

The ambitious Baku to Belém roadmap aims to mobilise $1.3 trillion in annual climate finance by 2035, creating significant opportunities for businesses positioned to contribute to climate solutions. Accessing these funds requires a clear demonstration of environmental, social, and governance (ESG) maturity and strategic alignment.

"Businesses that set up a sustainability strategy and are progressing towards a more sustainable economy will be more easily financed", says Fischer. "For example, in Europe, showing that your company’s activities (or part of them) are aligned to the taxonomy and contribute to one or several of the environmental objectives will have preferred access to climate solution funding".

According to Piña, "Accessing climate finance demands demonstrating ESG maturity, not just intention". She explains that companies with strong governance and risk management aligned with frameworks like IFRS S1 and S2 are better positioned. "The key is rigorous measurement, transparent reporting, and linking climate objectives to business strategy. Consistent, decision-useful data is now the passport to investment".

Abu Eid notes that this finance will largely be channelled through development banks and blended-finance platforms. To tap into this, businesses need "structured mitigation and adaptation plans aligned with national NDCs and supported by credible emissions-reduction or resilience metrics. Strengthening governance, financial management and sustainability disclosure (ISSB/IFRS, GRI) reduces perceived risk".

Collaboration is also a powerful strategy. DeCandido suggests that "Companies can join alliances or regional coalitions for shared resources and infrastructure, then focus on high-impact projects such as renewable energy, nature-based solutions, or digital climate initiatives".

Building operational resilience through adaptation

With national adaptation plans becoming central to climate strategy, companies must proactively assess risks and embed resilience into their operations. This involves looking beyond direct impacts to consider the entire value chain.

Fischer advises that "Climate risks should be analysed from an own operation point of view and also along the full value chain. These should be integrated in the company’s risk management system". She recommends using tools like climate scenarios and the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD model) to assess risks and develop strategies to reduce them to an acceptable level.

Piña adds that resilience is fundamentally a governance issue. "By embedding climate considerations into decision-making processes, core policies, and leadership priorities, organisations can proactively address environmental impacts, reduce vulnerabilities, and strengthen long-term stability".

From a practical standpoint, Abu Eid outlines a three-step approach for managing physical climate risks: "First, map assets, suppliers and key markets against recognised climate-hazard data; secondly, use scenarios to understand how those risks evolve over time; and thirdly integrate findings into enterprise risk management, capital planning and business continuity".

DeCandido highlights tangible operational shifts, such as diversifying supply chains to reduce dependence on climate-sensitive regions and "promoting digital monitoring by implementing AI for real-time climate risk tracking and predictive maintenance".

Leveraging innovation and sector-specific strategies

COP30 emphasised that a one-size-fits-all approach is insufficient. Industries like manufacturing, energy, technology, and agriculture must tailor their strategies to meet climate goals while remaining competitive.

Across all sectors, Piña sees a consistent pattern: "strong governance and robust measurement accelerate progress". She notes that manufacturing must focus on decarbonisation, technology on green innovation, and agriculture on climate-resilient practices. "Across all industries, companies that strengthen ESG structures and respond to market pressure move faster and gain competitiveness".

Abu Eid provides suggests that manufacturing firms should pursue energy efficiency and circular models, while energy companies should reallocate capital towards “renewables, grid solutions, storage, methane reduction and emerging low-carbon fuels aligns with global transition pathways Technology companies should design low-carbon digital infrastructure and develop products that enable emissions reduction for clients (e.g. optimisation, monitoring, early-warning, demand response). Agricultural and food businesses could adopt climate-smart and regenerative practices that improve yields, resilience and emissions performance, protecting export access and unlocking climate-aligned finance.”

Collaboration is also crucial. As Fischer states, "Multi stakeholder approaches can be useful to collaborate at sector level". Engaging with clients and suppliers can support a common strategy and accelerate progress.

Innovation is the engine that will power these transitions. According to Piña, "Innovation is already reshaping climate action in Latin America, from digital tools for emissions measurement to AI for risk anticipation. Sustainability challenges are becoming powerful engines for growth and differentiation".

DeCandido agrees, advising businesses to "Utilise breakthrough technologies such as AI and data analytics to monitor emissions, predict climate-related risks, and enhance your strategic outcomes". This approach can uncover new revenue opportunities and safeguard value chains.

Preparing for COP31 and beyond

As the world looks ahead to COP31 in Abu Dhabi, the next 12 months are critical for middle market businesses. The focus must shift from compliance to decisive action.

"Companies should prioritise actions over compliance on reporting", urges Fischer. "Actions in terms of climate and biodiversity, which are interlinked, are key to demonstrating that companies have integrated sustainability into their strategy".

Piña believes the priority should be strengthening ESG governance. "The critical gap is no longer between countries but between companies with solid structures and those still developing them". She also stresses the need to close talent and data gaps. "The next chapter will be written by those who choose to lead with clarity, consistency, and collaboration".

Abu Eid recommends treating new standards like ISSB/IFRS S1-S2 as the emerging global baseline and assessing gaps in governance and data. He advises companies to "continuously realign their climate strategies in a climate-resilient manner to benefit from related global treaties and channels".

Finally, DeCandido highlights the importance of stakeholder engagement. "Proactively engage with key stakeholders to shape market expectations. This involves ensuring alignment with investor requirements for your company, as well as partnering with suppliers to address emissions reduction and enhance resilience".

By taking these confident and forward-focused steps, middle market businesses can navigate the challenges of the climate transition and seize new opportunities to innovate, grow, and lead in the sustainable economy of the future.

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