2025 M&A trends in the transport and logistics industry

The European transport and logistics sector has always played a pivotal role in connecting economies. Over the last 12 months, however, the sector has experienced a whirlwind of restructuring, technological shifts, and fluctuating demand. These factors have significantly influenced merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in this dynamic industry. From electrification to geopolitical disruptions, industry players are carefully navigating a changing landscape, balancing growth opportunities with economic uncertainty.

Electrification is reshaping capital allocation strategies

Electrification is undoubtedly one of the most significant forces shaping the transport and logistics sector. Companies are racing to upgrade fleets and infrastructure to meet evolving environmental regulations and consumer expectations. However, this transition is intensely capital-intensive. Marcel Vlaar, Transaction Services Partner at RSM in the Netherlands, explains, “A lot of the larger logistics companies need to transform their fleet into electric vehicles, and that requires substantial investment. Many are looking for partners to help fund the electrification process."

This shift has given rise to M&A activity as companies look to share costs while achieving compliance. Vlaar also notes the urgency to consolidate within the logistics industry. "We are seeing a wave of consolidation, partly driven by the need to manage succession challenges," he adds.

While electrification presents opportunities, it also creates uneven progress across European markets. Certain regions are aggressively pursuing zero-emission goals, while others lag behind due to infrastructure limitations or implementation being slowed through a lack of political will. This disparity affects deal-making sentiment and makes electrification a complex, high-stakes investment decision.

Technology and data capabilities are now game-changers

Merging operational efficiency with cutting-edge technology has become a winning formula for logistics companies. The increasing role of data, particularly in third-party and fourth-party logistics, is opening new avenues for strategic M&A. Vlaar highlights this trend, citing innovative partnerships designed to maximise operational efficiency. "Many logistics companies are acquiring software providers to enhance route optimisation. Fully loaded shipments are crucial for profitability, so routing software is key," he says.

Nick Williams, Partner at RSM in the UK, observes similar developments. “We've seen several transactions with companies specialising in fleet management software. Businesses are zeroing in on route optimisation, vehicle tracking, and delivery tech to streamline operations,” he says. This surge in tech-driven acquisitions reflects the broader shift in how companies are leveraging data as a key enabler of profitability.

Economic pressures are driving selective investment

The ongoing strain from higher interest rates, rising inflation, and weakened consumer spending has left its mark on M&A in transport and logistics. Eric Fougedoire, Transaction Services Partner at RSM in France, describes the broader challenge as “decreasing volumes.” He elaborates, "Road and sea transportation volumes are down significantly. Warehouses are struggling with empty space, and consumption levels are simply not what they used to be."

Fougedoire notes that in the current climate, M&A activity is largely tied to restructuring rather than expansion. "Build-ups of strategic assets are taking place, but there's minimal interest from big investors, particularly in France. They are deterred by the chasm between sellers' high valuations and buyers' limited financing capabilities."

The disparity between anticipated asset values and current market conditions often leads to stagnation in deal negotiations. According to Vlaar, "Many investors are simply unwilling to divest at today’s lower multiples. They’re waiting for greater certainty."

Private equity plays it safe amidst sector-specific challenges

Private equity (PE) continues to play a nuanced role in M&A within the transport and logistics sector, supporting portfolio companies where growth opportunities are clear and targeted. As Williams notes, “Private equity are backing portfolio companies to make acquisitions, especially in transport-related technology. PE-backed firms in these areas are expanding rapidly as they capitalise on emerging opportunities.” He also highlights growing PE interest in the electrification of transport, particularly in companies installing electric vehicle charging points: “Private equity is looking to enter this space, seeing it as a sector with strong growth potential.”

Marcel Vlaar further underscores the preference for specialised, higher-margin sub-sectors, “White-glove logistics and sector-specific providers, such as those handling medical equipment, are still attracting interest due to their specialised nature and higher margins.” However, he continues, there is little new activity in traditional, lower-margin logistics providers, “I don’t see new entries when it comes to the 3PL (third-party logistics) or less sophisticated logistics companies.”

Eric Fougedoire is more reserved, describing the French market’s reticence, “Many private equity investors are staying away. It’s not a sector attracting enthusiasm for us right now, particularly for road and sea transport.” He points to select activity in smaller, niche logistics like document storage and in the building of specialised logistics centres, but stresses that overall private equity interest is muted.

Landmark deals such as Apollo Global Management’s £2.7 billion acquisition of EVRI from Advent International illustrate that major buyouts still occur. However, moves like these are rare and mostly concentrated in parcel delivery or other high-growth segments. Rising employment costs and increased regulatory pressures in mature markets are creating further hurdles, reinforcing PE’s focus on niches where technology, specialisation, or scale can unlock premium value.

Future outlook leans on digital transformation and global stability

Looking ahead, sentiment within the sector reflects a mixture of caution and optimism. Vlaar anticipates a recovery but notes its dependence on global stability and investor confidence. “Once trade tariffs stabilise and global geopolitical tensions ease, market conditions should gradually improve," he says.

Similarly, Williams identifies long-term opportunities for technology-based solutions. “Green initiatives such as the recycling of used vehicle parts are likely to expand as are services provided to the owners of electric vehicles as an increasing number are now outside of their warranty period,” he explains.

For his part, Fougedoire advocates a more restrained view, stating, “The next 12–18 months are unlikely to produce vibrant deal-making unless interest rates drop significantly or major restructuring compels activity. Businesses need to adapt to a low-consumption reality."

While challenges abound, the emphasis on innovation, from electrification to advanced data analytics, suggests opportunities for transformation. Organisations that successfully adapt their strategies to meet these realities are poised to lead in an evolving marketplace.