Farm gate

What we’re hearing: 

Farming has always required resilience. What’s changed is the number of risks converging at the same time.

Across the farm gate, uncertainty is becoming harder to isolate to any one issue. Fuel supply and cost, fertiliser pricing, labour shortages, climate events, machinery costs, succession planning, cyber risk, and financing pressure are all converging.

For many producers, decisions are now being made amid overlapping pressures that can change quickly and at the same time.

Diesel and fertiliser remain front of mind across much of the sector. Farmers continue to monitor global supply conditions closely, particularly around Middle East instability and its potential long term impacts on fuel and freight markets. Synthetic fertiliser also remains highly exposed to global energy and petrochemical supply chains, particularly nitrogen-based products such as urea. 

With input costs rising and fluctuating crop prices, the imbalance has forced producers to think differently about how they manage risk and position their operations for long term resilience.

Diesel and fertiliser costs are now influencing farm decisions well beyond budgeting alone.

Many crop producers are now reassessing:

• crop selection 
• nitrogen application strategies 
• planting programs 
• storage requirements 
• timing of purchases 
• alternate supply chains 

Some growers are revising parts of their cropping programs toward legumes or rotational crops that require lower nitrogen input, while others are sourcing alternative nitrogen products or securing supply earlier to reduce exposure to shortages later in the season. 

The risks are three-fold: uncertainty around supply access, inflated pricing, and difficulty offsetting higher costs through commodity prices. During previous fertiliser spikes, elevated grain and commodity values generally helped to absorb elevated expenses. Over the past two years however, wheat prices have softened significantly from the highs seen during the global supply disruption of 2022–2023. Fortunately, market conditions do appear to be improving. Australian wheat prices, for example, recently reached multi-month highs as a result of the current pressures. 

Compounding the challenge is the rapid escalation in machinery costs. Large harvesters, cotton pickers, and specialised equipment can now cost well into the millions of dollars – driven by rising manufacturing costs, technology integration, and ongoing demand for larger and more efficient machinery.
 

Historically, automation was often only commercially viable for major operators. Now, smaller and mid-sized operators are able to access these tools to help manage ongoing labour pressure.
 

Across the farm gate, productivity gains and sustainability outcomes are more often working hand in hand. Rather than operating as separate priorities, many farmers are now approaching efficiency, cost management and emissions reduction as interconnected parts of the same challenge.

Precision agriculture technologies are playing a major role in that shift. Variable rate application, soil monitoring, GPS-guided equipment, and water management systems are allowing producers to:

• apply inputs more accurately
• reduce waste
• improve yield consistency 
• lower fuel, fertiliser and water usage

In many cases, the commercial benefit comes first through better productivity and tighter cost control, while sustainability outcomes follow through lower emissions intensity and more efficient resource use.

Similar thinking is emerging in circular economy practices. Producers are exploring ways to reduce waste, improve reuse of organic materials, recover value from by-products, and extend the productive life of equipment and infrastructure. In an environment of rising input costs and margin pressure, these approaches are practical business decisions as much as sustainability initiatives.

Carbon farming and emissions reduction projects appear to be moving away from the “pioneer phase” and into the “compliance phase”, with greenhouse gas emission (GGE) reporting more relevant across the supply chain – particularly for producers supplying into larger processors, exporters and retailers subject to mandatory climate reporting obligations.

Across the sector itself, broader structural change continues. Large corporates, investment groups, and expanding operators remain active buyers of farming land in some regions, while urban expansion and environmental regulation are placing added pressure on land availability and land use flexibility.
 

As farms modernise and increasingly leverage technology to support operations, the growing risk of cybersecurity incidents cannot be ignored. 

Put simply, any device – from machinery to irrigation systems, livestock monitoring systems, accounting or procurement software – connected to the internet can present a risk. Recent examples include harvesters and tractors being remotely disabled, and a ransomware attack on a large processor’s system leading to cancelled shipments, producer hardships, and market volatility for livestock producers. 

Some of the risks include:

• ransomware 
• fake invoice scams 
• compromised supplier communications 
• hacked IoT devices 
• locked operational systems 

There are several steps farm owners can take to protect themselves. While working with a cybersecurity specialist to identify and address security gaps is ideal, basic do-it-yourself protections are helpful – such as multi-factor authentication, regular backups, invoice verification, software updates, and ongoing employee awareness.