What we’re hearing:
Global demand remains strong, but the path to market is becoming more complex
Wholesale, distribution and export businesses play a critical role connecting Australian producers to domestic and international markets.
Sitting between production and end-market demand, they often absorb pressure from both directions at once – with input costs, freight volatility, tariffs, changing customer preferences, geopolitical uncertainty, ESG-related reporting expectations, and supply chain disruption all converging here.
Right now, wholesalers and exporters are operating in a fast-changing environment where a multitude of commercial pressures are intensifying at the same time. This is making supply chain interconnectedness much more important to understand and manage.
Brynt Moggach
“Seasonality and supply timing are significant issues in wholesale and distribution. Many operators are still managing inventory, forecasting, shipping and finance across disconnected systems, which makes it harder to respond quickly when conditions change. That is where ERP becomes commercially valuable – bringing everything together so businesses can make faster and better-informed decisions.”
Premium exports and changing demand patterns
Australia’s premium food and beverage exports continue to perform strongly across many international markets, particularly in Asia and the Middle East.
High quality meat products such as Wagyu beef remain highly regarded globally, supported by our strong reputation for food safety, quality assurance, and traceability.
However, premium export markets are also highly sensitive to broader economic and trading conditions. Demand for luxury and premium food categories often correlates with:
- international tourism activity
- business travel
- discretionary consumer spending
This interconnectedness is becoming more pronounced as exporters face growing uncertainty within global markets. Even where underlying demand remains strong, market access may be lost, volumes restricted or pricing cut if trade barriers or freight disruptions interfere with key international markets.
China is still a critical export market for Australian agribusiness, although changing quota and tariff conditions are creating more uncertainty. New Chinese safeguard tariffs introduced in 2026 have increased pressure on global beef exporters once quota limits are exceeded.
For exporters, this reinforces the importance of diversification and scenario planning rather than relying too heavily on any single destination market.
Tariffs, quotas and geopolitical uncertainty
Because geopolitical disruption is difficult to predict, modelling allows wholesalers, distributors and exporters to better prepare for different market conditions when stability is no longer guaranteed.
Tariffs, quotas, sanctions, evolving trade alliances, and geopolitical instability are all influencing how exporters assess risk and allocate product across markets.
The issue is not just market access, but whether the commercial outcome still makes sense once all the conditions are factored in. This is changing how businesses go about their export strategies, with many increasingly weighing:
- higher margin but higher risk markets
- lower margin but more stable alternatives
- concentration risk
- currency exposure
- long term customer security
For this reason, forecasting and scenario modelling have become far more important.
Rather than relying on assumptions, businesses must be able to model upside and downside trade scenarios to fully understand how multiple converging factors might affect profitability and continuity.
For example:
- What happens if a key export market imposes quotas or increases tariffs?
- What happens if shipping lanes face disruption?
- What if a major customer reduces volume?
- How exposed is the business to a single market or distributor?
Distribution pressure flows through the chain
Wholesale and distribution networks are also facing rising pressure domestically.
Fuel costs, labour expenses, insurance, vehicle costs, and margin compression continue to affect operators throughout the supply chain – particularly smaller ones with subcontracted delivery networks.
In sectors such as dairy distribution for example, many operators rely on independent owner-drivers or small fleet businesses to service cafés, restaurants and retail outlets.
Those operators are now managing the same cost pressures affecting the wider industry, which creates another layer of vulnerability in the supply chain.
Even businesses with strong internal capability can experience disruption if key supply chain partners decide to scale back operations or become financially unviable. Because broader ecosystem resilience is more pronounced in this sector, wholesalers and distributors need to understand the resilience of the network surrounding them.
Andrew Bowcher
“When wholesale and distribution businesses come under pressure, one of the biggest issues is that conditions can deteriorate quickly once cashflow tightens and inventory starts moving slower than expected. The earlier a business understands its position and the options available to it, the more flexibility it generally has. In some situations, that may include restructuring pathways such as the Small Business Restructuring regime, safe harbour or voluntary administration, which can provide an opportunity to stabilise operations and move forward with a clearer plan.”
ESG pressure moves into transport
Sustainability reporting and emissions transparency are also beginning to influence global trade dynamics.
One example is the emergence of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs) across jurisdictions such as the European Union. These mechanisms are designed to apply carbon-related costs to imported goods where production emissions exceed local standards.
While agriculture is not yet fully captured in many CBAM frameworks, the regulatory direction is growing clearer. As such, exporters are likely to find themselves under pressure to provide more information around:
- emissions data
- supply chain traceability
- sustainability reporting
- evidence of climate risk management
As mandatory climate reporting expands locally, Scope 3 emissions obligations are also expected to flow through supply chains. Large retailers, multinational customers, and financial institutions may increasingly request emissions data from suppliers and exporters as part of procurement and reporting processes.
Businesses with stronger ESG and sustainability positioning are likely to gain competitive advantage locally and in certain export markets in the near future.
Data visibility becomes commercially critical
Enhanced business-wide reporting and insight is now a greater focus for wholesale and export businesses. With many still managing procurement, inventory, freight coordination, customer orders, finance, and reporting across disconnected systems and spreadsheets, the challenges created by this fragmentation are far more noticeable under current conditions.
ERP platforms and integrated operational systems are helping to reverse this trend, allowing businesses to:
- improve inventory visibility
- automate reporting
- forecast demand more accurately
- manage multi-entity operations
- improve procurement timing
- coordinate logistics more efficiently
For export businesses operating across multiple markets and currencies, this visibility is helping to manage business and financial risk, especially in seasonal industries where timing is critical.
Questions around what stock is available, where it sits, what demand is likely to be, how quickly product can move, and whether supply can meet seasonal peaks are more easily answered – allowing boards and leaders to respond faster to changing conditions and make data-driven decisions.
Cybersecurity presents a continuity risk
As wholesale and export businesses become more digitally connected, cyber risk is extending further into day-to-day business activity.
Businesses rely heavily on various platforms and systems, and each one of these creates additional exposure points for cyber threats.
Equally, a cyber incident affecting a key supply chain partner can quickly disrupt the movement of product through the chain. Businesses are recognising that cyber resilience now extends beyond internal systems to include contingency planning around third party disruption.
Important questions to consider include:
- If a freight provider goes offline, what is the backup option?
- If a distributor experiences disruption, how quickly can supply routes change?
- Are there manual workarounds if systems fail?
- How dependent is the business on a small number of critical providers?
It is this broader resilience mindset that will enable the right level of preparedness in export and distribution networks.
Outlook
Wholesale, distribution, and export businesses are entering a period where adaptability may be one of the sector’s most valuable assets.
Global demand for Australian agricultural products remains strong in many categories, however the path between producer and customer is much more volatile.
Tariffs, geopolitical tension, freight disruption, emissions reporting, cyber risk, and supply chain dependencies are all adding layers of complexity that businesses must navigate simultaneously.
For many operators, future competitiveness may depend less on scale alone and more on visibility, flexibility, diversification, and the ability to respond quickly as market conditions change.
CONTACT US
CONTACT US